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Over the next few months, the following risk factors will be on our radar.

  • Increasingly persistent doubts about the implementation of Donald Trump’s economic promises.
  • The possibility that economic growth will disappoint investors, a factor not yet priced into the markets.
  • The fact that the bond market does not expect very big interest rate hikes over the next two years.
  • A more pronounced than expected tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy.
  • The upcoming elections in Germany (September 2017) and in Italy (May 2018).
  • The Brexit negotiations and their effects on the U.K. and the euro zone.
  • Decelerating growth in China and its impact on the global economy.
  • The economy’s incapacity to withstand very high borrowing rates.


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